New Poll On Equalization

This week we teamed up with the Western Standard to conduct a poll on the provincial equalization referendum taking place next Monday, in conjunction with Alberta's municipal elections.

Respondents were asked:

“On the referendum question of eliminating equalization payments, how would you vote today? The exact question is: Should Section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 — Parliament and the Government of Canada’s commitment to the principle of making equalization payments — be removed from the Constitution?”

Amongst all respondents, a majority of 55% said that they would vote ‘yes,’ while 29% said they would vote ‘no,’ and 16% said they weren’t sure.

Perhaps most interestingly, while a 'yes' vote is much more popular in rural Alberta, the question is actually on track to win all regions of the province.

In Northern Rural areas, 'yes' is winning 69.2% to 16.7%, with 14.1% undecided.

In Edmonton, 'yes' is winning 41.7% to 34.3%, with 24.1% undecided.

In Calgary, 'yes' is winning 49.6% to 36%, with 14.5% undecided.

In Southern Rural areas, 'yes' is winning 67.9% to 23.3%, with 8.8% undecided.

This shows that, despite the media's claims, Albertans from right across the province are sick of how Alberta is treated, and are ready to vote yes to a new deal.

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Reassuringly, the Mainstreet Calgary figures closely match our own numbers that we recently found when we commissioned Northwest Research Group (in conjunction with our friends at Common Sense Calgary) to conduct a Calgary poll, and found that 52% of respondents will be voting 'yes', 32% will be voting 'no', and 15% were undecided.

Mainstreet Research's poll was conducted between October 12th and 13th, using IVR, with a sample of 935 and a margin of error of 3.2%.

Northwest Research Group's poll (of Calgary only), was conducted between October 7th and October 9th, with a sample of 2,718, and a margin of error of 1.9%.

The results of both surveys were weighted for demographic and geographic balance, as required. 

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Overall, we’re encouraged to see that, despite everything going on in provincial politics at the moment, a clear majority of Albertans appear to still be determined to get a better deal for Alberta.

This referendum is just the first step on a long journey, but it is a vital one, and should this result bear out on election day, it will send a very clear message to Ottawa that the status quo is no longer acceptable.