New Poll On Equalization
This week we teamed up with the Western Standard to conduct a poll on the provincial equalization referendum taking place next Monday, in conjunction with Alberta's municipal elections.
Respondents were asked:
“On the referendum question of eliminating equalization payments, how would you vote today? The exact question is: Should Section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 — Parliament and the Government of Canada’s commitment to the principle of making equalization payments — be removed from the Constitution?”
Amongst all respondents, a majority of 55% said that they would vote ‘yes,’ while 29% said they would vote ‘no,’ and 16% said they weren’t sure.
That means that, amongst decided voters, the ‘yes’ side is projected to win with 65.5% in favour, and 34.5% opposed.
Perhaps most interestingly, while a 'yes' vote is much more popular in rural Alberta, the question is actually on track to win all regions of the province.
In Northern Rural areas, 'yes' is winning 69.2% to 16.7%, with 14.1% undecided.
In Edmonton, 'yes' is winning 41.7% to 34.3%, with 24.1% undecided.
In Calgary, 'yes' is winning 49.6% to 36%, with 14.5% undecided.
In Southern Rural areas, 'yes' is winning 67.9% to 23.3%, with 8.8% undecided.
This shows that, despite the media's claims, Albertans from right across the province are sick of how Alberta is treated, and are ready to vote yes to a new deal.
Reassuringly, the Mainstreet Calgary figures closely match our own numbers that we recently found when we commissioned Northwest Research Group (in conjunction with our friends at Common Sense Calgary) to conduct a Calgary poll, and found that 52% of respondents will be voting 'yes', 32% will be voting 'no', and 15% were undecided.
Mainstreet Research's poll was conducted between October 12th and 13th, using IVR, with a sample of 935 and a margin of error of 3.2%.
Northwest Research Group's poll (of Calgary only), was conducted between October 7th and October 9th, with a sample of 2,718, and a margin of error of 1.9%.
The results of both surveys were weighted for demographic and geographic balance, as required.
Overall, we’re encouraged to see that, despite everything going on in provincial politics at the moment, a clear majority of Albertans appear to still be determined to get a better deal for Alberta.
This referendum is just the first step on a long journey, but it is a vital one, and should this result bear out on election day, it will send a very clear message to Ottawa that the status quo is no longer acceptable.